There is a question in every pilot aspirant's mind nowadays, is it a wise decision to go for CPL training in 2020? CPL training costs you lakhs of rupees, some cases in crores. Spending such a huge amount, shall I become jobless as the aviation scenario is showing a bad sign. The doubt in youngsters' minds is very genuine and it needs to be addressed right now.


Let's have a deep-down analysis of the issue here.

COVID19 EFFECT ON AVIATION :

The COVID-19 infection has spread worldwide without recognizing the outskirts. It has affected all enterprises, all parts, and all parts of our lives with annihilating monetary and money related misfortunes and noteworthy vulnerabilities. Meeting people's high expectations of an emergency is the same old thing to airlines and the more extensive aeronautics and travel division. Similarly, as the business has defeated past wellbeing pandemics, financial downturns, terrible security occurrences, and other weakening occasions, it also will beat the COVID-19 emergency. The activities that administration, industry pioneers, and individual carriers take during this period will impact how profound the emergency comes to, to what extent the impacts last, how rapidly the business recoups, to what degree the business will be changed, and which organizations will rise generally more grounded than their companions. The fault lies with the confinement that grounded the planes. Europe’s major airlines will lose at least 50% of their turnover and passengers in 2020 compared to 2019.

As per the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) which intently screens common flying in the nation, ''Most Indian airlines have not organized their plans of action to have the option to withstand even ordinary stuns, for example, raised fuel costs or financial downturns, not to mention once-in-a-century occasions.''

The composing seems, by all accounts, to be on the divider. ''In case of a 3-month shutdown, the two recorded transporters alone - IndiGo and SpiceJet - could report consolidated misfortunes of USD1.25-1.50 billion across 4QFY2020 and 1QFY2021. IndiGo's up to this point lucky free money stores may nearly be cleared out before the finish of 2QFY2021. Littler bearers may leave,'' says CAPA in its report titled "Anticipating the potential budgetary effect of COVID 19 on Indian Aviation". ( source NDTV )

IT HAPPENED IN EARLIER TOO :

The H1N1 influenza virus, more commonly known as swine flu, was first detected in April of this year and caused airports worldwide to be put on high alert as countries set about preventing the largest epidemic since the SARS ‘bird flu’ outbreak in 2003.
"It has been a mixed year for the airport sector – for every positive, there appears to have been negative."
The outbreak originated in Veracruz, Mexico, and caused the Mexican Government to close most of Mexico City’s public and private facilities in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a ‘public health emergency of international concern’ and by 27 April 2009, the EU has advised all Europeans to postpone non-essential travel to the US or Mexico.
( Source Airport Technology )


THE RECOVERY AFTER THE 2008 ECONOMIC RECESSION :

The economic crisis of the post 2008 downturn has been more extreme. Airlines reacted quickly in 2008 and adjusted capacities and cost levels but recovery in profits has been slow for many airlines. The dynamics of the downturn has enlarged the gap between successful and less successful business models, and fostered shakeouts of the latter. Furthermore, the occurrence of new business models has accelerated. In 2001, it was the European continental low cost model; this time, we may see new attempts to change the rules of the game in international long-haul traffic. Long-term non-cyclical trends such as deregulation or consolidation will also shape potential end game scenarios, We briefly examine the differences between the last (2001/03) and the recent (2008/09) aviation crises, and evaluate the impact on different types of carriers.Research highlights► The paper contrasts the effects on European airlines of the post-2008 economic recessions with previous severe economic downturns. ► The analysis indicates that airlines were better prepared for the impacts on the demands for their services after in the post-2008 recession than they were for the post 2001 down-turn. ► The impacts of the recent recession are found to differ between airline types. ► Scenario analysis provides insights into the likely successful approaches for handling recessions.


AIRLINE OPENINGS BETWEEN 2009-2013 :

There was not much massive openings in aviation for fresher pilots from the time period 2009-2013 because of the economic situation and airline policies. Hence, from 2014 the scenerio changed and good opportunities opened up for freshers. Airlines like IndiGo, Jet Airways, Air India, Air India Express, Vistara, Air Asia all came into hiring mode upto 2018-19. Lot of unemployed pilots from the past few years got jobs.


IS IT A GOOD TIME TO GO FOR PILOT TRAINING NOW ?


Well, the time isn't good, I would say. But it doesn't forbid you to pursue your dream either entering into pilot school or persuing pilot course in aviation academy. After every bad time, good time comes. The industry also works similar to a sinusoidal curve. Same as your career too. Right now, there will be some pilot who just lost his job, but he will fight more to come back in airline. Only his struggle period will be lengthy. In every career it exists. Here is a calculation you can focus on. If you start your CPL training, lets say at the end of 2020, or in early 2021, on average, it will take you two years. So, in 2024 you will be ready with your Commercial Pilot License with multi engine rating. Can we expect the airlines will come back into business by the time? Though, it can't be predicted so easily, but on a good hope. As a pilot aspirant, you should have the back up to fight during the time period of 2024-2026 after pilot training. If a small window opens at least, you should be ready the grab that opportunity.If we can come out to the COVID19 sooner, it can even take shorter time duration that we think.

WHAT WILL MATTER MOST IF YOU START YOUR CPL TRAINING NOW ?

The only thing that will matter is the quality of training and your knowledge level. The competition level for any airline entrance will rise up if there are so many candidates available. So to anticipate with the future scenerio, you need to plan accordingly. You should not choose a training path that gives you B grade of training. After spending a lot of money, time and energy, if you can not beat the competition with your knowledge and skill, then what it the point ? This can lead into a level of depression in later stages.

If you want to be secure ( read Intention to hire ) with your job, airline pilot training or cadet pilot program can be a good option. You can opt for IndiGo Cadet Pilot Program, Air Asia India Cadet Pilot Program, or Spice Jet Cadet Pilot program whenever it comes. IGRUA entrance exam can be a good alternative for many. Though it is up to personal choice and opinion, I would rather leave it to the students best interest. You can go for other pilot training course options too in India or abroad. But be sure about the pilot training facility and infrastructure of the flying school and be clear about the flying school cost. If you need more information for the Cadet Pilot Program or IGRUA, you can join our online preparation courses at https://aviatorcloud.com . Finally I would conclude, if your passion says I want to become a pilot and fly for the airline, any pandemic is temporary thing. It was there earlier, and may exist in future too. As long as people need physical transportation and global connectivity, we have no other alternative. If you are not passionate and serious about the career, it's better not to jump into it and blame your fate.

All the best for your future aviation career. Feel free to comment to this article. You can reach me out sending email below.


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